Fred's Blog
A World War 2 Trilogy - By FRED NATH (Novelist and Neurosurgeon)
RSS Follow Become a Fan

Delivered by FeedBurner


Recent Posts

Covid-19 [4]
Covid-19 [3]
COVID-19 Again
COVID-19
The Game of Thrones Petition

Most Popular Posts

Fred's Doc Blog
The Trial by Franz Kafka -my personal view.
Dr Bawa-Garba and Manslaughter
How to self-publish your book (Episode 1) - a Quick, Easy Solution!
Trigeminal Neuralgia

Categories

Entertainments
Food
Grumbles
Medical stuff
news
Politics
thoughts
Writing

Archives

March 2020
July 2019
June 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
May 2018
April 2018
February 2018
December 2016
September 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
January 2016
November 2015
August 2015
March 2014
January 2014
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010

powered by

Fred's Blog

thoughts

Covid-19 [4]

I realise most of it isn’t rocket science, but as a neurosurgeon, I’m used to looking at figures of outcomes and mortality. I’m puzzled.
In January last year the winter mortality in the UK was just about 1500 deaths per day. The daily death rate fell to around 1200 by 31 March 2019. The cause of the excess deaths (1500 – 1200 = 300) was due to an increase in respiratory infections, mainly in the elderly.
I have not seen the current daily death rates for this year, but it remains unclear to me whether the figures given out for Covid-19 are to be included in the normal daily death rate or whether they are on top of the known seasonal excess winter death rates.

Covid-19 [3]

So, we’ve hit the 1K mark for deaths. The PM says it’s going to get worse. We know this already. If we all behave and don’t touch anyone else, we may keep the deaths to a minimum but not before the death rate peaks.
Seems to me there is some pretty flawed thinking about who is at risk. Front-line NHS workers I suspect are among those who are most exposed to the Covid-19 virus. The Government is wanting to test them because… because what?
The average doctor in ITU whether he has PPE or not, may or may not have the virus at any one point in time.

COVID-19 Again

COVID-19 again.
It has come to my attention…

That’s the way all unpleasant missives begin, after all, isn’t it?

Look people, there seem to be a lot of you who still don’t understand what we are facing here. If the epidemic peaks badly like in Italy, the mortality will quadruple. All the intensive care facilities will be taken up (average stay is about 8 days in ITU). Infected people will not get treatment and more and more will die.

We bandy figures around like 1% mortality but in Italy, the mortality over all is over 8% because as facilities get used up there are more people dying at home without ventilatory support.

COVID-19

A nineteenth century traveler called Charles Kinglake published his travelogue of a journey across the Mediterranean and Middle east (Eothen). I had to study it for ‘O’ levels. At the time I couldn’t understand why there were frequent references to plague and weird superstitions about things like: if you have a cold you can’t catch plague. He thought he was lucky to get a bad head-cold on his journey. Maybe I understand him a little better now.
It seems to me that even when confronted by facts and scientific truths we still cling to foolish superstitions in the hope that hope will save us.

The Game of Thrones Petition

I watched GOT from Season 1 to the very end. I loved it. The acting was mostly brilliant, the storyline even better than the books and the characters were fleshed-out, realistic and engaging.

Many fans seem to be displeased with the ending and for my part there were elements of the ending I didn’t like. I felt Jon Snow became a whimp towards the end. The great swordsman, the driving force behind so much in the story just fizzled out as if no one in the 7 Kingdoms felt he deserved better than banishment to the far north.

Harry comes up trumps!

Most people have a view of Donald Trump. I know I have mine. Meghan Markle has expressed her views during Trump’s presidential campaign. Can’t say I can identify any difference of opinion between mine and hers.
This is the first US president that I can recall who is blustering, tactless, full of himself and well, downright a president of whom the USA should be ashamed. His failure to act on climate change, his views on women and equality and human rights have all come under scrutiny in the press and it all fosters a view of a man who should never had got to power, but money speaks, I guess.

Shamima Begum

This girl has been castigated and disenfranchised because she left the UK to go to the IS. At the time she was 15 years of age. When she entered the refugee camp in Syria, she was heavily pregnant, and she now has a baby boy.
Much controversy surrounds the mother and child. Many seem to think that she is a Muslim Jihadist and allowing her to return to the UK poses a threat to our security.
My initial reaction was that it serves her right because the faction she left the UK to join is without doubt, by western standards, evil.

Innocent beliefs

When I lived in Glasgow, many years ago, my two elder sons aged 5 and 7 learned a song at school:
 
Jesus bids us shine with a pure, clear light,
Like a little candle burning in the night,
In this world of darkness, Jesus bids us shine,
You in your small corner and me in mine.
 
Maybe you’ll think I’m stupid, but it always moved me. Why? Because it’s about the purity of a child, about kindness and above all the right of a child to believe.
Believe in what? I hear you say.
It doesn’t matter whether you substitute Mohammed, Buddha or Jupiter Optimus Maximus for Jesus, it’s what we should bring our children up to believe in – about a culture of kindness.

Stress Interviews

There is much talk on MSN about stress interviews in industry. Young people with appropriate skills and CV’s are bullied and demeaned to see how resilient they are under stressful conditions. Personal remarks about their appearance, posture, tastes and previous performance are made to make the candidate as uncomfortable as possible, hoping to elicit a reaction. The ‘successful’ candidate would be unruffled throughout.
As a Royal College representative on interview committees for about 20 years and having a lot of practical experience as an examiner, I think I may be allowed a comment.

Zero Tolerance

Deeply saddened by the death of a young man in Yarm on Sunday early morning. My sincere sympathies go out to his grieving family and friends. Attacked and chased by a gang of 6 or more louts, his body was found in the river 2 days later. Despicable.
I live in an area where Cleveland Police have zero tolerance for exceeding the speed limit (you can get 3 points on your license for doing 33 mph), but they seem to have enormous tolerance for violence and drugs. About time they cleaned up Yarm which used to be a lovely, North Yorkshire town where one could go out in the evening without a likelihood of assault, or seeing druggies and fights on the High Street.